下图表示某项目各个活动关系及乐观、最可能、悲观完成时间，假设各活动的三种完成时间服从β分布，按照三点估算法该项目标准差为3.2天，则项目在（ ）完成的概率为95%。
- A.42.6天到55.4天
- B.45.8天到52.2天
- C.61.4天到74.6天
- D.64.7天到71.3天
正确答案及解析
正确答案
解析
本题考查的是计划评审技术。
根据三点估算法计算出各活动的工期，例如A活动工期=（8+16+4×12）/6=12天，依此类推B活动工期19天，C活动工期7天，D活动工期天13天，E活动工期6天，F活动工期12天。然后再根据紧前紧后关系画出单代号网络图，找出关键路径ABEF总工期为49天。完成95%的概率是正负两倍标准差，即42.6天到55.4天。
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