某企业有一投资方案,每天生产某种设备1500台,生成成本每台700元,预计售价每台1800元,估算投资额为800万元,该投资方案寿命为7年,假设年产量,每台售价和投资额均有可能在?20%的范围内变动,就这三个不确定因素对投资回收期的敏感性分析得到了下表中的部分投资回收期数据(空缺部分尚未计算),根据投资回收期的计算结果可知,这三个不确定性因素中, ( ) 是高风险因素(可能导致投资风险)。

- A.年产量
- B.每台售价
- C.投资额
- D.全部
正确答案及解析
正确答案
解析
该题属于单因素敏感性分析。年产量在+20变化对回收期敏感性影响为:4.85-4.04=0.81;每台售价+20变化对回收期敏感性影响为:4.85-3.65=1.20;投资额+20变化对回收期敏感性影响为: 4.85-5.82=-0.97;同理,计算+10和-10的变化;根据但因为敏感性影响原理,绝对值越大,表明该因素对敏感性影响越大,每台售价对回收期敏感性影响最大。
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